This is write-up 3 of 6 in a collection about the Demographic Transition Model – a standard concept in population education and learning, which is covered in Social Studies courses, most notably AP Human Geography.
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Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is defined by a fast decrease in a country’s death rate while the birth rate stays high. Therefore, the full populace of a country in Stage 2 will increase because births outnumber deaths, not because the birth rate is climbing. The decrease in death price is frequently attributed to significant enhancements in in its entirety wellness, specifically accessibility to pediatric care, which affects the life expectancy of the the majority of at-threat demographic group — kids. But in addition to standard healthtreatment, an expanded education system, gender ehigh quality, and technological developments in the locations of food production and sanitation likewise occupational to decrease the death rate.
The change to Stage 2 is still a relatively current phenomenon in humale background. Not until the Industrial Revolution did the initially nations make the change from Stage 1 to Stage 2. Due to the fact that the mid-20th Century the majority of of the world’s countries have actually not only made it into Stage 2, however have actually also continued to progress to Stages 3 and also 4. Still, there are a variety of nations that remajor in Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition for a selection of social and financial reasons, including a lot of Sub-Saharan Africa, Guatemala, Nauru, Palestine, Yeguys and Afghanistan.
Demographic Transition Model Stage 2 Case Study: Afghanistan
In 2013, Afghanistan had actually one of the better prices of herbal rise (birth rate minus death rate; or net increase) in the human being at 2.7% – much greater than any type of various other main Oriental nation. Data detailed from the Population Reference Bureau had the Afghan birth price at (35/1000) and also the death price at (8/1000). What is a lot of substantial below is that the death price in Afghanistan is low and also it proceeds to decline. Only a decade ago the death price was over 20/1000, peaking approximately 2004. This rapid reduction in the fatality rate is exciting to demographers because although life span has increased quickly, one of the major indications of a lowered death price (son mortality) continues to be high. Afghanistan currently has actually the highest possible rate of kid mortality in the human being, wbelow one in ten youngsters execute not live passed the age of 5. Why then the decrease in fatality rate? Overall public health and wellness has actually considerably boosted, and also though the child mortality price is still high it is an innovation, as is the boosted accessibility to food and also sanitation that has actually enabled adults to live much longer. Quite exceptional for a nation that has competent so much war during the very same time period.
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Looking past the numbers of birth and also fatality price brings the discussion ago to the Demographic Transition Model’s emphasis on progression. Like Afghanistan, many countries in Stage 2 are categorized as “occurring.” The prices of birth and also death are both the reason and also effect of social and also political factors within a nation. Afghanistan has actually competent decades of war both internally, and externally, and also this has actually had substantial impacts on the in its entirety health and wellness and health and wellness treatment device of the nation. With continued improvement to both, the supposed outcome established by the DTM is a transition into Stage 3 wbelow total population expansion proceeds, however at a reduced price. The DTM does not provide a time table for change, however the huge gap between the birth and also death might signal that the nation is nearing the end of Stage 2. For that change to take place, Afghanistan will have to resolve exceptional social and financial factors that cause reduced birth prices, many notably in the areas of education and learning and also the status of women. Afghanistan has a very high illiteracy rate and restricted educational opportunities for women, both indications towards a high birth price. Without either of those worries being addressed, the country will remain in Stage 2, with a high rate of populace growth. If the current growth rate continues the full populace of Afghanistan is supposed to double in simply 25 years.
Demographic Transition Model blog series: Synopsis, Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3, Stage 4, Stage 5