This is article 3 that 6 in a series about the Demographic shift Model – a fundamental concept in populace education, which is extended in Social research studies courses, many notably AP person Geography.

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Stage 2 of the Demographic change Model (DTM) is identified by a rapid decrease in a country’s death rate if the birth price remains high. As such, the total population of a nation in phase 2 will certainly rise because births outnumber deaths, not because the birth rate is rising. The to decrease in fatality rate is typically attributed to far-ranging improvements in in its entirety health, specifically accessibility to pediatric care, i beg your pardon affects the life expectations of the most at-risk demographic team — children. But along with an easy healthcare, one expanded education and learning system, gender equality, and technological advances in the areas of food production and sanitation likewise work to decrease the death rate.

The shift to stage 2 is still a relatively recent phenomenon in human history. Not till the Industrial change did the first countries make the transition from phase 1 to phase 2. Since the mid-20th Century many of the world’s countries have not only made it into Stage 2, but have additionally continued to progress to step 3 and also 4. Still, there are a variety of countries that continue to be in phase 2 the the Demographic shift for a selection of social and economic reasons, consisting of much of Sub-Saharan Africa, Guatemala, Nauru, Palestine, Yemen and Afghanistan.

Demographic transition Model phase 2 situation Study: Afghanistan

In 2013, Afghanistan had one that the greater rates of organic increase (birth price minus death rate; or network increase) in the world at 2.7% – much higher than any type of other central Asian nation. Data provided from the populace Reference Bureau had actually the Afghan birth rate at (35/1000) and the fatality rate at (8/1000). What is most significant here is the the death rate in Afghanistan is low and it continues to decline. Only a decade ago the death rate was over 20/1000, peaking approximately 2004. This quick reduction in the death rate is interesting to demographers since although life expectancy has risen quickly, one of the primary indications of a lowered fatality rate (child mortality) continues to be high. Afghanistan currently has the highest possible rate of kid mortality in the world, whereby one in ten youngsters do not live pass the age of 5. Why climate the to decrease in fatality rate? all at once public health and wellness has greatly improved, and also even though the kid mortality rate is still high that is one improvement, as is the increased accessibility to food and sanitation the has permitted adults to live longer. Fairly remarkable for a country that has experienced so lot war throughout the exact same time period.

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Looking past the number of birth and also death price brings the discussion earlier to the Demographic shift Model’s emphasis on progress. Prefer Afghanistan, many countries in stage 2 room categorized as “developing.” The rates of birth and also death room both the cause and also effect the social and political components within a country. Afghanistan has experienced decades of war both internally, and also externally, and this has had significant impacts top top the as whole health and health treatment system that the country. With continued development to both, the expected outcome established by the DTM is a change into stage 3 whereby total population growth continues, yet at a reduced rate. The DTM walk not administer a time table for transition, yet the huge gap in between the birth and also death may signal the the nation is nearing the finish of phase 2. For that change to occur, Afghanistan will need to resolve outstanding social and economic factors that lead to lower bear rates, many notably in the areas of education and the status of women. Afghanistan has actually a very high illiteracy rate and restricted educational avenues for women, both indications towards a high bear rate. Without one of two people of those worries being addressed, the nation will stay in phase 2, through a high price of population growth. If the current growth rate continues the total populace of Afghanistan is meant to twin in just 25 years.

Demographic transition Model blog series: Overview, stage 1, phase 2, stage 3, phase 4, phase 5