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11:59 PMInstructions: Download “HW3.xlsx” Excel file. You require to form your last answers anddiscussions for the following questions in the ideal cells detailed in the “AnswerSheet”worksheet. You require to show your job-related for questions 6, 8, 11, and 12 in the designated sheets.To submit, upload her completed Excel paper on Blackboard by clicking on “HW3” connect under the“Assignments” tab.
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The complying with table has the demand from the last 5 months.
Month actual Demand
a. Calculation the single exponential smoothing estimate for these data making use of an α the 0.30 and also an initial estimate (F 1 ) of 31. Report the projection for Month 6 in AnswerSheet. (2 pts.)
b. Calculation the exponential smoothing v trend projection for these data using an α that 0.30, a β that 0.30, an initial trend projection (T 1 ) of 1, and also an initial greatly smoothed projection (F 1 ) of 30. Report the forecast including trend for Month 6 in AnswerSheet. (2 pts.)
c. Calculate the median absolute deviation (MAD) because that each forecast. I m sorry forecasting technique performs much better in this trouble (pick indigenous the list)? (3 pts.)
Absolutedeviation Tt Ft FITt absolute deviation1 31 31.00 0 1.00 30.00 31.00 02 34 31.00 3.00 1.00 31.00 32.00 2.3 33 31.90 1.10 1.18 32.60 33.78 0.4 35 32.23 2.77 1.11 33.55 34.66 0.5 37 33.06 3.94 1.14 34.76 35.90 1.6 34.24 1.24 36.23 37.MAD 10.81/5=2.16 4.22/5=0.
Based upon the mad of each forecast, the exponential smoothing with trend is the betterforecasting model.Historical demand for a product is Demand
January 12February 11March 15April 12May 16June 15a. Making use of a weighted moving median with weights of 0.60 (for June), 0.30 (for May), and also 0.(for April), discover the July forecast. (2 pts.)b. Using a straightforward three-month moving average, find the July forecast. (2 pts.)
a. FJuly = .60(15) + .30(16) + .10(12) = 15.b. FJuly = (15 + 16 + 12) / 3 = 14.A builder has actually located a item of residential property that she would favor to buy and eventually develop on. The land is right now zoned because that four houses per acre, yet she is planning come request brand-new zoning. What she builds counts on the approval that zoning requests and also your evaluation of this problem to recommend her. Through her input and your help, the decision procedure has been diminished to the adhering to costs, alternatives, and also probabilities:
Cost of land: $2 million.Probability of rezoning: 0.60.If the floor is rezoned, there will certainly be additional costs for brand-new roads, lighting, and so on, the $million.
If the land is rezoned, the contractor have to decide whether to develop a shopping facility or 1,apartments that the tentative arrangement shows would certainly be possible. If she build a shopping center, thereis a 70 percent opportunity that she have the right to sell the shopping center to a huge department chain because that $million over her building cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 30 percent opportunity thatshe have the right to sell it an insurance agency for $5 million end her construction cost (also not included theland). If, rather of the purchase center, she decides to develop the 1,500 apartments, she placesprobabilities on the profits as follows: there is a 60 percent chance that she deserve to sell theapartments to a actual estate invest corporation for 3,000 each over her building cost; thereis a 40% opportunity that she obtain only $2,000 each over her building cost. (Both to exclude, the landcost.)
If the floor is no rezoned, she will comply with the currently zoning restrictions and also simply build600 homes, on i m sorry she expects to make $4,000 over the building cost on every one(excluding the price of land).
The decision tree for this inquiry is provided below. Report the meant values because that nodes 1, 2, 3, 4,and 5, and explain the finest decision in the cells detailed in the AnswerSheet. Report the expectedvalues in millions dollars.
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Unit earnings for the three products are $20 (for X 1 ), $6 (for X 2 ), and also $8 (for X 3 ).
a) create the math formulation come maximize the profit per mainly (Decision variables: Productionamount of X 1 , X 2 , and also X 3 ) (4 pts.)b) solve the math formulation using Excel Solver. Present your occupational in paper “Problem 4b.” (pts.)c) What is the optimal solution? (3 pts.)